Posted by DBOLLC, Sun 18 Feb, 2012 05;21AM EST
Is The Federal Government Lying To You?
Once again Bill points out one of the many ways that the government manipulates the employment figures to make you “feel better” about the economy.
Posted by Bill Tatro on Feb 15, 2012
Seasonally Adjusted Lies
It never ceases to amaze me how politicians believe that telling the truth is somehow a guarantor of a short career.
I remember quite distinctly when Presidential candidate John McCain looked directly into the television camera and told the American public that “all was well.”
At the time, he was leading the race for the Presidency. Did he know the truth, or was it wishful thinking? The rest, they say, was history. Back to the Senate, neighbor. (Yes, I’m honored to say that John McCain is actually my neighbor.)
Fast forward to the present.
We are being constantly bombarded with seasonally adjusted numbers that are designed to make all of us feel good. Coupled with a Plunge Protection Team (PPT) controlled stock market in order to create Bernanke’s wealth effect, and theoretically our economy is well on the road to recovery.
Unfortunately, when the governmental seasonal adjustments are removed, certain indisputable facts still remain. Unemployment is a good example.
With the utilization of the government’s statistics regarding less people in the workforce, we experience a so-called ongoing drop in the unemployment rate. Conversely, using historic methodology without adjustments, unemployment continues to rise.
Keep in mind that people just don’t disappear! Next, retail sales. The government’s seasonal adjustments supposedly illustrate a continuing trend of consumers who are enjoying a renaissance of spending.
However, examining the stated numbers without the shenanigans clearly shows the largest one-month drop in retail history. A great Black Friday, a terrific Cyber Monday, and a holiday season to write home about? Definitely not! Finally, let’s discuss job creation. This particular governmental adjustment is very interesting because according to the administration one job loss and one job gain cancel each other out in the national figures.